Tragedy and farce
On 10 December president-elect Mauricio Macri was due to take power from outgoing Peronist president Cristina Fernández, known as CFK. Instead, he was invested into office by his own vice-president, after an improvised 12-hour presidency by the leader of the Senate. Furious backroom negotiations had failed to find a compromise between CFK and Macri about how to conduct the handover. With ceremonial protocol in short supply due to the relatively few times democratic transfers have taken place in Argentina, the politics of one up(wo)manship won over the national interest. It was a sad spectacle after the peaceful democratic process at the ballot boxes that everyone celebrated. The results were close, but fair, and showed Mauricio Macri had won 51% of the 25 million votes, compared with Daniel Scioli’s 49%. Cambiemos (Let’s Change) was the coalition of opposition parties led by Mauricio Macri to victory. His attempt on the presidency had seemed unlikely only a few months earlier. Yet with support from the remnants of the national structures of the Union Cívica Radical (UCR), the historic party of opposition to Peronism, his party Propuesta Republicana (PRO) came to power. Much is being written about what his government might do. But I don’t have a crystal ball, so I prefer to look at what he has done already, as candidate, as mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, and as political leader. Most of us stay true to form.How the election was won (and lost)
In early October of this year Macri unveiled an outsized statue of Juan Domingo Perón in Buenos Aires. As odd as thinking Boris Johnson might erect a statue of Keir Hardie, founder of the Labour Party. Macri, a wealthy, privately educated businessman who has tended to look outside the country’s borders for policy inspiration, embodies everything that Peronism is opposed to. Given Perón’s towering presence in Argentinian politics, one might expect many statues of him to be scattered throughout the city. But he is also a controversial figure, so this was, in fact, the first in his honour. Another has been in the offing for years, under the auspices of the national government and Perón’s own Justicialist Party, but it has never quite come to pass. Macri’s audacious hijacking of Perón’s image to boost his own message of efficiency and non-partisanship showed his determination to woo all Argentinians to his political project. Even so, at the time of the unveiling, only a few weeks before the election, he was considered unlikely to win. In the event, he won the presidential run-off, not so much on his merits, but thanks to dissatisfaction with the government of CFK. People complained of the president’s arrogant attitude, of her divisive speeches that identified enemies everywhere, of the way she sought out confrontation. Her critics across the media hurled insults and denigration back at her. In turn, publicly owned media supported the government rather than promoting open debate. The past few years have seen Argentina become a social battlefield where differences have engendered enmities and disagreements have turned into vituperation. The vote against CFK’s chosen successor had more to do with weariness and alarm at the levels of antagonism in society than with unhappiness with the concrete results of the Kirchners’ 12 years in government. The successive Kirchners’ governments (Néstor Kirchner 2003-2007, CFK 2007-2015) have left behind a significantly better economy than the one they inherited. Income per capita rose from US$3,640 in 2003 to US$14,160 in 2013 according to the World Bank[1]. Economist Mark Weisbrot writes that independent measures recorded a massive 80 per cent fall in poverty, and unemployment fell from more than 17.2 of the workforce to 6.9 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund[2]. Social protection was expanded with the creation of a universal basic state pension; child benefits meant informal and poor workers had a way of ensuring education and nutrition for their children. Inequality was reduced from a Gini coefficient of 53.5 in 2003 to 43.6 in 2011[3]. The country’s road networks have been modernised and more new cars put on them than ever before, airports have been refurbished and millions have travelled abroad. Yet the polarisation of society overshadowed the economic gains and the government’s strategy of exacerbating different interests into opposing factions made everyone lose sight of what was gained. And people voted for change. Macri succeeded in making ‘change’ a feel good generic promise, without concrete content. He offered to change the things people didn’t like about CFK’s government, but he didn’t say how. His happy optimism (“the happiness revolution is starting”, see photo)
A country split down the middle
On 22 November Macri won by fewer than 700,000 votes, revealing a country split down the middle. But his electoral alliance also won the governorship of Buenos Aires province, a Peronist stronghold and the country’s most important political district. His party held on to the local government of the city of Buenos Aires after two terms in office. It was a convincing win, even though his party and allies have a minority in both Congress and Senate. The results signalled that there are two halves to the electorate, nearly equal and opposed. A constituency key to Macri’s win was the province of Córdoba, where the ring-wing Peronist governor opposed CFK and Cambiemos garnered 71.5 per cent of votes cast. It is Argentina’s second largest city and lies in the heartland of soya growing, the country’s main export. The agribusiness sector has been bitterly opposed to CFK since she increased taxation on exports: in 2008 they were at the forefront of the landowners’ protests that paralysed the country. The election results show an even split between progressive and more conservative forces in society. It is an interesting result because it is not explained only by party politics and has more to do with attitudes to power and social change. Only time will tell whether it follows the same contours as the ‘the rift’, the much talked about grieta[4], the term used to describe bitter differences that arose within society, even within families and groups of friends, when some supported and others criticised the Kirchner governments. On the morning of the 23 November it seemed that the rift might become a chasm. The day’s editorial in the right wing La Nación newspaper read ‘No more vengeance’. It claimed that ‘the election of a new government is a good moment to put an end to the lies about the 1970s and the current violations of human rights’ – it was referring to the trials and prison sentences being meted out to those who took part in the state’s crimes against humanity during the last dictatorship (1976-1982). The editors clearly felt that their calls for interfering in the rule of law would find a sympathetic hearing with the new government. The repudiation of La Nación’s stance was overwhelming. To the credit of the paper’s workers, other journalists, and society at large, everyone spoke out against it. It suggests that perhaps the rift can be narrowed through a shared respect for the law. Macri’s muted response was to say that the courts should have total independence to pursue justice. The incident showed that the support for justice set in motion by Néstor Kirchner’s annulment of the amnesty laws protecting those accused of violations of human rights has become common sense above politics. The social response showed that impunity will not be tolerated by the majority of the population and demonstrated that the desire for an independent and fully functional judiciary is widespread. Macri has repeatedly said that he will strengthen the rule of law and show respect for the division of powers, and that is part of his appeal. Yet as soon as he failed to agree how to conduct the handover of power with CFK, he asked the state attorney in charge of electoral matters to terminate CFK’s mandate at midnight of the day before he took office. His request was accepted so that instead of negotiating a handover, he used the judicial system to resolve a political dispute. Coincidentally, this was the same state attorney who was unable to continue proceedings against Macri within days of his election, in a case where he was suspected of tapping the phones of political and personal rivals[5]. That leaves only 213 legal proceedings in which Macri stands accused[6]. The cases against him include ‘fraud and illicit association’, ‘abuse of power and violation of the duties of an elected representative’, and ‘falsifying public documents’ among other charges. There has been no comment in the mainstream media on the contradiction between these charges and his declarations to take on corruption and be a staunch defender of the rule of law.Searching for the facts
Despite his talk of change and unity, Macri deftly avoided making concrete proposals during his campaign. The few he made, such as taxing the Christmas wage bonus, he backtracked on. During his swearing in speech, the fact-checking group Chequeado[7] were ready to look into his every statement. Instead, they had to report that he only delivered one checkable fact in the whole half hour speech.
Yellow brick road
Optimists like Ernesto Semán, writing in Nacla[22], argue that the right has been tamed in Argentina, that the progressive governments of the past decade have moved the goalposts and the bases for discussion have changed. It may be that the achievements in human rights, social protection and inclusion have moved society towards more inclusive goals. Yet the evidence from Macri’s past actions, and those of his closest collaborators, signal that their actions to achieve their objectives may not be as respectful of civil society and the rule of law as Macri so loudly proclaims. Macri supporters would argue that his achievements as mayor are visible and convincing. The advertising budget is visible in bright yellow billboards across the city. A network of cycle lanes, dedicated bus lanes, an expanded underground system. Parks have been refurbished and fenced. The city of Buenos Aires looks beautiful, and so much neater for being cleared of ‘trespassers’. And that is the feeling one gets from Macri’s actions: they look good. And what doesn’t look great – in this case the poor, the homeless – are pushed out of sight and out of mind. Progressive commentators are hopeful that popular organisations will be able to hold Macri to account. And the numbers of people who took to the streets to see CFK off seem to back them up. The handover CFK and Macri failed to agree on, the people made flesh on the streets. A peaceful transition took place between 9 December, when thousands of people filled the Plaza de Mayo to say goodbye and thank you to Cristina[23], and 10 December when Macri’s supporters celebrated his win with anti-K chants[24]. The differences in the crowds suggest that the rift is still an open wound. On both sides people asked for unity and dialogue and a more inclusive future – yet both sides harbour enormous reserves of mistrust and anger.
[1] GNI per capita 2003: 3,640; 2013:14,160. Accessed December 10th 2015, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD [2] Accessed December 10th 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/11/24/mauricio-macri-presidential-win-bad-for-argentina/ Mark Weisbrot, Why Macri’s Win is Bad News for Argentina. [3] World Bank figures, 2011 latest available independent figures. [4] Interview with journalist Jorge Lanata. Accessed December 10 2015. http://www.clarin.com/viva/Revista_Viva-Jorge_Lanata-grieta-kirchnerismo-argentina_0_1476452484.html [5] Accessed December 10 2015, http://www.clarin.com/politica/Di-Lello-sobreseimiento-Macri-ilegales_0_1478852393.html [6] Accessed December 10 2015 http://www.lmcordoba.com.ar/nota/218878_rompio-el-record-macri-tiene-214-denuncias-en-la-justicia [7] http://chequeado.com/ [8] Accessed December 9th 2015, http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/richest-cities-2005.html [9] “Informe Nacional sobre Desarrollo Human 2013 Argentina en un mundo incierto: Asegurar el desarrollo humano en el siglo XXI” (PDF) (in Spanish). United Nations Development Programme. p. 143. Accessed December 8th 2015 http://www.ar.undp.org/content/argentina/es/home/library/human_development/informe-nacional-sobre-desarrollo-humano-2013–argentina-en-un-m/ [10] Accessed December 10 2015, http://chequeado.com/ultimas-noticias/scioli-macri-triplico-la-deuda-publica-de-la-ciudad/ [11] Plan Plurianual de Inversiones 2015-2017 Accessed December 10 2015. https://odhbsas.wordpress.com/category/noticias-de-la-ciudad/ [12] Decreto N° 1232/08 signed by Mauricio Macri in Boletín Oficial (29/10/08). [13] Accessed December 10 2015, https://odhbsas.wordpress.com/category/espacio-publico/ [14] Accessed December 10 2015, http://nueva-ciudad.com.ar/notas/201411/16561-en-el-sur-la-mortalidad-infantil-duplica-la-del-norte-de-la-ciudad.html [15] Accessed December 10 2015 http://chequeado.com/ultimas-noticias/macri-caputo-s-a-no-licito-una-sola-obra-en-mi-gestion/ [16] O’Donnell, Santiago (2011) Argenleaks: Los cables de Wikileaks sobre la Argentina, de la A a la Z. Buenos Aires: Sudemericana. [17] Accessed December 10 2015 http://santiagoodonnell.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=macri [18] Accessed December 10 2015, Adamovsky, Ezequiel. ‘Mauricio Macri: No Triumph for the Republic.’ http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Mauricio-Macri-No-Triumph-for-the-Republic-20151202-0004.html [19] Accessed December 10 2015. http://www.laprimerapiedra.com.ar/2015/11/los-antecedentes-del-gabinete-de-ministros-de-macri/ [20] Accessed December 10 2015 http://www.infobae.com/2014/01/03/1534677-ocho-procesados-el-megacanje-de-la-rua-y-cavallo [21] Accessed December 10 2015. Svampa, Maristella Magaminería, el debate que falta. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1834301-megamineria-el-debate-que-falta [22] Accessed December 10 2015 https://nacla.org/news/2015/12/02/taming-argentine-right [23] Accessed December 10 2015 http://www.lavaca.org/notas/parte-1-plaza-de-mayo-9d-el-ultimo-acto/ [24] Accessed December 10 2015 http://www.lavaca.org/notas/parte-2-congreso-plaza-de-mayo-10d-el-primer-acto/