Jan Rocha

With Bolsonaro AWOL and his supporters claiming electoral fraud, fomenting violence and trying to provoke a military coup, Lula and the PT face massive difficulties and levels of polarisation remain extremely high

Lula's narrow victory in Brazil's second-round presidential election on November 30 raised fears of a coup. Jair Bolsonaro initially declined to recognize the result and waited to see if his supporters would stage an insurrection. Lorry blockades gradually dispersed, however, and the army remained passive. Brazilian democracy looks safe at least for the present.

Brazil's presidential election looks very likely to deliver a first round victory for Lula. Will Bolsonaro, like Trump, attempt to discredit the voting, or work to sabotage the new governmdent.

What is happening in the Amazon is a war -- against the rainforest, its original inhabitants, and also against the rest of the world. Perhaps this is the Third World War, the war to end all wars?

Recalling the famous 1977 Letter for Democracy, the 2022 Carta pela Democracia has gathered more than a million signatures from lawyers, academics, trade unionists, black leaders, business leaders and trades unionists -- all warning against any attempt by Bolsonaro to stage a coup if he should lose the presidential election

Jair Bolsonaro has launched a frontal assault on the same electoral system which brought him to the presidency. This is part of a three-pronged strategy to discredit Brazil's democracy and refuse to accept any outcome other than his own victory

Dom Phillips and Bruno Pereira were murdered in a remote area of the Amazon – almost certainly by or on the orders of those who run the illegal trade in fish, timber, drugs and minerals. President Bolsonaro has fuelled lawlessness by his rhetoric.

Mired in scandal, Bolsonaro provokes a constitutional crisis to divert attention. But, as Lula's campaign gears up, the key question is what the military will do.

The 'packet of destruction' raft of new bills is set to pass in Brazil's congress, with the enthusiastic endorsement of President Bolsonaro. It spells death and destruction for the Amazon and for indigenous communities.

Lula is riding high in the polls, but faces daunting challenges if he is elected. Will Bolsonaro go quietly or imitate Trump. If Bolsonaro wins, the Amazon will be lost.